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Monday, May 30, 2011

Consequences of localised conflicts on the development of the Cold War

With the spread of the Cold War into other parts of the world it was recognised that the Cold War might and the conflicts that happened as a result had brought the world too close to direct confrontation between the 2 superpowers.
2 in particular
- The Korean War, from June 25, 1950 to cease-fire on July 27, 1953 (the war has not ended officially) The Korean War was the first armed confrontation of the Cold War, and it set a model for many later conflicts. It created the idea of a limited war, where the two superpowers would fight without descending to an all out war that could involve nuclear weapons. It also expanded the Cold War, which to that point had mostly been concerned with Europe.
- The Cuban Missile Crisis involved the Soviet Union and the United States regarding the Soviet deployment of nuclear missiles in Cuba. The period of greatest danger started on October 16, 1962, when U.S. reconnaissance was shown to U.S. President John F. Kennedy which revealed evidence for Soviet nuclear missile installations on the island, and lasted for 13 days until October 28, 1962, when Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev announced that the installations would be dismantled. The Cuban Missile Crisis is regarded as the one moment when the Cold War came closest to escalating into a nuclear war.
Which leads us into the Post Stalin World…

A different phase of the Cold War:

Was there a thaw in the Cold War in the post-Stalin era?
And did this mean there were no tensions?
And why was it that during this period, there was a spreading of the Cold War

THAW
Why?

New leadership in both states.

- Seemed to bring a new relationship.
- Both Khrushchev (Khrushchev became Premier on March 27, 1958, seizing absolute power in the country — the tradition followed by all his predecessors and successors)
And Eisenhower (34th President of the United States (1953–1961)) seemed able to think in global terms.

It also seemed that because Eisenhower was a war hero, he did not have to show the same kind of toughness as Truman had. So America was willing to allow him this rapproachment with the USSR.
- There was a genuine quest for peace.
- Khrushchev’s Peaceful Coexistence Speech may have allowed for better relations (closed session of the Twentieth Party Congress, February 25, 1956)

With Stalin Dying, Khrushchev would go on to resume diplomatic ties with Greece and Israel and Turkey and allow an armistice / conclusion to the Korean War.

Examples of this increasingly docile relations

Meetings between 2 sides
-Summits- Diplomatic meetings between the heads of states.

1954 – Geneva Summit: while there was no progress made with regards to Germany, there was some made on Austria.

At Geneva, no real progress was made – no disbandment of NATO or the Warsaw Pact, no withdrawal of troops, no agreement to Eisenhower’s “open skies” system of surveillance.
BUT there was a marked reduction in tensions. Both sides seemed to view the others as reasonable men.
Gave rise to the “Spirit of Geneva”.

There was the conclusion to the Austrian State Treaty (May 1955) with made Austria neutral and there was withdrawal of troops from both sides.
To the Soviets it was at no cost because Austria was kept out of NATO and it was hoped that it would make Germany view neutrality as beneficial.

1959 – Khrushchev visits Eisenhower at Camp David. This produced recommendations for arms control and disarmament. There was also agreements to have another summit in Paris in May 1960.

Increased fears of devastation

By 1954, Malenkov (USSR foreign Minister) said that a nuclear war would destroy civilisation. This was meant to reduce arms spending.
There was a need to place limits on nuclear and non nuclear weapons.

1949 USSR – First atomic bomb
1950 Abandoned UN Disarmament Commission
1952-3 both sides tested H-bombs within months.
Both sides also increased delivery capabilities.
Concept of MAD
H-bombs altered strategies both for hot war and Cold War.

1953 – Eisenhower’s Atoms for Peace speech – Rejected by USSR because the US would not discuss the renouncing nuclear weapons and the plans for “first use”.

1955 – “Open skies speech” 21 July. – Dangers of Disarmament without inspection was dangerous

USSR 1957 Sputnik
1957 First Intercontinental Ballistic Missile.

1961 Yuri Gagarin leads John Glenn into space.

From this position of strength, Khrushchev willing to allow for peaceful coexistence.
But Communism would triumph

Unfounded fears of a missile gap because it looks like USSR in lead.

Problems of Disarmament and arms control
It may have made Eisenhower look weak and that the USA was falling behind..
JFK used this to win elections
Both sides stated that they were committed to disarmaments but were hampered by the other side.

US not committed to it as a way to achieve détente. Saw arms as a deterrent.
Reduce conventional forces and increase nuclear – NEW LOOK – based on economic and military rationale
So was arms control real or a ploy?

After Cuban Missile Crisis the USSR became less confident. No longer viewed US and new President as weak

Relations improved after being so close to war

1963 - Post CMC - Hotline between the 2 Leaders for direct communication between the 2 sides in the eventuality of another conflict.
- Sale of grain to USSR in October (but still got problems)
- Test Ban Treaty: USSR no longer as confident
But this only prevented atmospheric tests where verification was easy and not underground testing. Also, new nuclear powers did not sign and so there was no agreement on proliferation. (France, China)
Germany still an issue. USSR protested against the Germans joining a Multilateral Nuclear Force.

By the end of JFK and Khrushchev, especially after the CMC, there were many agreements much more than in 40s and 50s, but ideological differences and suspicions remained even if there was less chance of a global war.




Arms talks would later lead to things like –

1968 NPT: Both major powers saw the possibilities of a nuclear war and the dangers nuclear weapons in the wrong hands.
It was designed to keep the existing nuclear hierarchy.
Of course China and France refused to sign.

There became a more urgent need for arms control…
SALT talks. So there was groundwork laid.

But despite increase communiations and relations between the 2 sides there wasa possibility that conflict could re-emerge.
There were tensions in the thaw

1960 Summit was to be held in Paris but on 1 May 1960, the USSR shot down a spy plane. And while the US tried to deny it, it was soon forced to do so because the pilot, Gary Powers, had been captured.

Khrushchev wanted an apology which Eisenhower refused and talks broke down.
Relations became strained because it was now known that the US was spying on USSR and flying planes in Soviet airspace.

In 1961 – there was the creation of the Berlin Wall – the Physical representation of the Iron Curtain.

Also by 1961, John F. Kennedy became president and he embarked on a policy of rearmament and had come to power by saying that the US had fallen behind the Soviets – there was a “missile gap.”

And of course the Cuban Missile Crisis

Of lesser note: 1956 – Suez Crisis
The importance was the aftermath,
- showed the decline of Britain, and made the US the dominant player in the region. Its actions also made it unable to criticize the USSR in Hungary.
- The Eisenhower Doctrine which promised aid to any country fighting international communism.
But was this communist inspired?

Also don’t forget the actions of the Soviets in 1956 but little was done because to preserve peaceful coexistence there had to be respect for the Spheres of Influence.
Was this another example of the superpowers using others as pawns in their grand chess games.

Conclusion

So was there a thaw in the Cold War?
With increased relations there was more communication and relations between the 2 sides
But the events also brought the superpowers extremely close to war.

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