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Monday, May 30, 2011

After Khrushchev…

USSR
Leonid Brezhnev: effective ruler of the Soviet Union from 1964 to 1982, though at first in partnership with others. He was General Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union from 1964 to 1982
Podgorny: President
Kosigyn: Premier

Brezhnev wanted - Consolidation of bloc.
Continuation of peaceful co-existence
As long as there was non-interference in their affairs? What did this mean?

Communist Unity as key. This meant that there could be no repeat of 1956.
1969 Communist Conference (1 year after Czech)

Previously we have seen a thaw in the Cold War. But after numerous conflicts, there became a concerted effort to reduce tensions between the 2 sides.


USA
John F. Kennedy, 1961 – 1963
Lyndon Baines Johnson, 1963 – 1969
Richard Nixon, 1969 – 1974
Gerald Ford, 1974 – 1977
Jimmy Carter, 1977 - 1981


DETENTE
Peaceful coexistence meant no war but competition
Détente meant cooperation


Henry Kissinger (Nixon’s Secretary of State.): Détente means that both sides recognize each other as a possible enemy in a nuclear war, and so there is a need to manage relations so that peace is maintained.






Why?

Economic reasons for both nations

-Brezhnev wanted US tech; and managed to get US grain cheaply

- Also around this time USSR had committed great amounts of aid to Eastern Europe

-USSR kept raising defense budget. Needed to keep it down


Manage balance of global power – maintain status quo

-US wanted to open the communist states and increase liberal democracy and trade
- Concrete agreements – so that they would have a stake in world affairs.
Linkage – Nixon wanted to link economic rewards with “good behavior”
But also maintain US superiority, especially with the USSR catching up.


-USSR wanted to decouple US from European affairs


Change in Foreign Affairs Climate

-USSR also threatened by China situation. – multipolarity


-USA – Vietnam


MAD

Wanted to win Cold War through ideology and reduce hot war through détente



Arms Race

Under LBJ, US’ policy was aggressive – Vietnam. Middle East
So Brezhnev was wary. He knew that a belligerent President could be dangerous

Nixon and Kissinger however, also realized limits of US power. Especially against the backdrop of Vietnam.







What did the superpowers do?

Arms Control

There needed to be arms control. In this way parity was maintained and the superpowers tried to keep the nuclear race contained.

- 1967 – USSR deal with France, signed treaty preventing nukes in space.
- 2 July 1968. – Non-Proliferation Treaty.
- 1970. Strategic Arms Limitation Talks – MIRVs and ABM needed to be controlled because it stopped the predictability of MAD begin.
- 1971 Sea-bed Treaty.
- SALT Treaty:

SALT I is the common name for the Strategic Arms Limitation Talks Agreement. SALT I froze the number of strategic ballistic missile launchers at existing levels

Also limited number of land based strategic missiles. 1054 for USA and 1618 for USSR.
USSR’s superiority offset by MIRVs and made no provisions on warheads

Limits on sea based launch capabilities

Each side only allowed 2 ABM sites, each containing 100 missiles, one around the capital and another near an ICMBM site. So that there is always a possibility of retaliation.


SALT was good for Brezhnev who got détente in Europe. His aim of keeping the US negotiating with it and keeping the USA away from Europe seemed to be working.

Both sides were pleased as it was able to placate domestic pressure

- SALT II (Gerald Ford) – Attempts to reinvigorate Foreign Policy due to domestic problems
Largely symbolic and political/military.
SALT II talks (Vladivostok)
SALT seemed the only evidence of détente in late 1970s
SALT II talks began Nov 1972 but progress was slow. And bogged down by things like Watergate.
Finally signed 15-18 June 1979.
But was not ratified.
Although by 1980 the 2 sides agreed to abide by it
TILL REAGAN




China

USSR’s relations with China was worsening at the same time China’s relations with US getting better
USA takes action

Triangular relations
15 July 1971 Nixon visits China - Rapprochement would mean reduced burden on resources. – could concentrate on US nuclear arsenal on USSR alone and open markets.

28 Feb 72 – Shanghai Communique e.g 1 China policy, trade and diplomatic contacts

1972 – Journey to China a huge success.
Friendship Treaty signed.
Allowed China into UN

Nixon correctly realized that the USSR wanted to negotiate because there was a fear of encirclement by USA / China

Under Carter – Normalisation of Relations
This happened from 1978 till 1 Jan 1979 (official)
March – opening of embassies

Vietnam and USSR were isolated

Therefore an increase in rapprochement with China which Moscow fearful and suspicious. This was one of reasons for invasion of Afghanistan.


Vietnam

USA: With regards to Vietnam Nixon introduced: Vietnamization
Nixon Doctrine – “as far as our role is concerned we must avoid a policy that will make countries in Asia so dependent upon us that we are dragged into conflicts such as the one we have in Vietnam.”

In addition, US looked to be withdrawing from Nam with Peace Treaty

Feb Peace accords – 1973 but by 1975 Communists took over

So Domino theory was no longer just a fear but was happening for real

Overall US believed that the ability to contain USSR was no longer evident in the 1970s so détente was failing. So there was a need for a new policy.

We would see this happening under the rules of Gorbachev and Reagan.


Europe

USSR also tried to improve relations with France / Germany

Germany
12 Aug 1970 (exactly 31 years after Nazi Soviet Pact) – a WG-USSR non aggression pact.
Thereby recognizing WG and obtaining access to trade and tech.

In East Germany, Walter Ulbricht (did not want changes) replaced by Erich Hoenecker.

Ostpolitik
Increasing relations in Ger
Willy Brandt
1970 – treaties with USSR and Poland recognizing borders
1972 – Nobel Peace Prize
1971 – Berlin Agreement (US, USSR, Britain, France)

The Basic Treaty 22 Dec 1972.


15 Jan 1973 – European Security Conference

USSR wanted recognition of division in Europe and Germany

Helsinki
30 July – 1 Aug 1975
Marked the high point of European Détente and security
Was it merely an acceptance of existing territorial boundaries or a “comprehensive peace-settlement”?

3 Baskets

1st Basket – Security Issues


2nd Basket- Cultural, Economic, Commercial Cooperation


3rd Basket- Human Rights


This Final Act of the European Securityencouraged Eastern European Non-Communists to see how far they could push.

In addition…





Eastern Europe
Because of split with China, Warsaw Pact became very important for USSR.

- Prague Spring and Suppression of the Czech Uprising.


Other areas

Middle East
- N.B. After Suez, USSR had helped rebuild Egyptian Army.

- 1973-4. US gasoline shortage because of Mid East War. (contributed to economic problems.

- Oct 1973 – Yom Kippur War: Egypt and Syria attacked, pushed Israel out of Jerusalem who counter attacked.

- Under Carter – Summit

- Camp David 5 Sep 1978.
2 accords – 1. Israel would withdraw from Sinai Peninsula
2. Much Vaguer but allusions to Palestine’s independence, special status of Jerusalem.

Peace Treaty allowed for diplomatic relations with Egypt but upset Israeli domestic opinion.

Was it over oil, was it a regional conflict or superpower conflict?





Rising of tensions (especially in the later part of 1970s)

Even as early as 1968, with the Czech Prague Spring and the Tet Offensive, strains were evident.


Constant suspicion e.g. suspicions about Russian training brigades in Cuba.
Defection of Arkady Shevchenko
Leading to Soviet invasion of Afghanistan 1979


Vietnam, Cuba and Africa

Both sides seemed to have lost faith in détente by late 1970s

Different ideas in pursuing it.
Both did not intend to abandon ideology, or allies


USA - felt too much being given up
- By late 70s, many saw Détente as merely Soviet expansionism


USSR - economy did not improve despite getting foreign aid.
- USSR maybe had abandoned confrontation in favour of less risky proxy wars in less developed world


Was it a “Cold War” or merely regional conflicts?

Kissinger could not reconcile anti-communism and realpolitik


USSR Disliked interference, especially with regards to human rights


Middle East
Six Day War (testing the superpower commitment)
USSR replaced 80% free of charge aircraft and tanks in losses

By Yom Kippur, after the Israel victory, the USA felt that this showed that the US considered itself more super than the other side.


Egypt began to get closer to USA to find a settlement with Israel. While USSR went on to support the PLO, Syria and Iraq which condemned US’s domination of the area.
USA started to support Iran, despite the shah’s less than stellar reputation because it could be a ‘policeman’ that was outside the Israel conflict.
Iran became very important strategically and economically for the USA in the Mid East.


Latin America
Sep 1970, Salvador Allende was elected in Chile – (a socialist, who had wide ranging socialist programme)
- Nixon did not want this
- By 1973, 11 Sep there was a coup (Chile’s first) and General Pinochet, with an atrocious human rights record came to power.

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